Issue: June 2006
By: Frank Bisbee

Bisbee's Buzz

Hurricanes 2006 – Predictions and Preparations

The official Atlantic hurricane season started June 1, 2006

The 2006 Hurricane Season forecast this year is highlighting the region from the Carolinas northeast as the prime area for above-normal risk of impact from hurricane activity. While the Carolina coast has seen direct hurricane landfalls several times since the start of the current multi-decadal cycle in 1995 (Bertha and Fran in 1996, Bonnie in 1998, Floyd in 1999 and Isabel in 2003), Long Island and southeastern New England have escaped a hurricane strike. Other areas at elevated risk are the Gulf Coast from central Louisiana westward, especially early in the season, with an eye toward the southwest Florida Gulf coast later in the season. The only good news is that this pattern suggests a significantly reduced risk, relative to normal, for the eastern and central Gulf Coast - an area hit by four named storms last season, two of which were major hurricanes. The initial landfall forecast is for three major (Category 3 or greater) hurricane hits this year on the United States coast, two hurricanes of Category 2 or less and one tropical storm - a total of six storms making landfall.

The National Hurricane Center says the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than average, but won’t see last year’s record numbers. 

Meteorologists said water in the Atlantic is not as warm as it was at this time in 2005, meaning potential storms would have less of the fuel needed to develop into hurricanes.  Scientists said it is unclear if atmospheric conditions that helped produce the 2005 storms will happen again this year, but the Pacific Ocean water conditions known as El Nino and La Nina will not affect the season.

NAMED STORMS

	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006
Prediction	9 – 13	11 – 15	12 – 15	12 – 15	13 – 16
Actual	12	16	15	28	?

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Fiber Optic Cabling Is The Way To Go

INTRO: "I have touted using fiber optics for years because of its high-speed capacity, now it also appears to be the more cost-effective way to go for network infrastructure," observes James Carlini.

Copper is dead. Repeat after me. Copper is dead. Evidently that mantra is not shared by some analysts on Wall Street who if they "really" knew the telecommunications business, they would be questioning the strategy of building more copper-dependent network infrastructure. Basic costs for materials have skyrocketed.

The cost of many raw materials has shot up dramatically in the last year and some as recent as the last couple of months (See Charts below). According to a May 2006 CSC (Communications Supply Corporation) newsletter that focused on the cost of communications cabling:

In particular, copper (Comex) prices have increased by over ninety-two cents ($0.92) per pound since the beginning of April with price increases sometimes approaching twenty cents ($0.20) per day. To put this in perspective; copper prices increased seventy-five cents ($0.75) in all of 2005. This equates to a 58% increase in copper since January of 2006 and a 138% increase since January of 2005!

For the moment, there is no stopping copper and looking ahead there seems to be nothing to derail it. Worldwide copper consumption will exceed production in 2006 by 100,000 tons according to a BaseMetals.com report. The biggest reason for world copper supply tightness and sky-high prices continues to be China, where industrial and urbanization have been underway all decade.

Patricia Mohr, vice president with Scotia Bank, said that recent data suggest that the combined copper stored in Comex, London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses are considered to be around a 3.6-day global supply. This figure is near the low end of its recent range of 2.8 days in 2004 and could reach that range once again by year's end. Continued strikes and natural disasters across the globe are also contributing to further disruptions to copper output. Output has been lost during a month long stoppage at the La Caridad mine, owned by Grupo Mexico SA. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. said that variations in the richness of deposits at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia led to a decline of a 1/3 in first quarter production from the site, which is the world's second largest copper mine.

THE BET THAT MADE NO SENSE

There was a bet made several years ago by some network engineers, cabling companies, equipment manufacturers and corporate strategists at carriers that speeds on copper would be increased and faster network speeds could be easily achieved on existing copper infrastructure. There was no need to upgrade to fiber. To me, that was a dumb bet.

My argument has always been, no matter how much you can squeeze on copper, you can do so much more with fiber.  If you are building a new campus or single building, put in fiber optics as the communications network infrastructure transmission media.  That will be the transmission media that matches the lifespan of the building.

This argument goes back over a good decade and some heeded it as others continued using obsolete rules-of-thumb for cabling infrastructure design.

Frank Bisbee, the publisher of Wireville.com, a monthly newsletter said, “If you thought the prices at the gas pump were shocking, you will be stunned by the price increases on copper-based cabling.”

He said that several manufacturers explained that the petroleum cost increases were finding their way through to the cost of the resins for jackets and insulation on cabling. 

Adding to those additional cost burdens, the cable manufacturers are facing a

skyrocketing set of price increases on copper itself.  One manufacturer said that

the price for copper has shot up more than 22% in the last 3 weeks.  And it's not over, according to Bisbee.  He got this from one of his suppliers:

We have reluctantly been forced to increase prices on all

Cat 3, Cat 5e and Cat 6 cables. The new prices go into affect immediately.

Unfortunately, the manufacturers are raising prices almost continually, and therefore, our prices will be subject to these changes. Some manufacturers are reviewing prices weekly! Prices may continue to increase. General Cable, one of our suppliers and one of the largest in the world, made the following announcement. "With copper rising at a much more accelerated pace, we must shift our pricing policies to recover these costs more quickly. In order to manage this incredible volatility of copper prices, we will adjust pricing on a weekly basis until copper resumes the steadier path. We are trying to keep product prices as stable as possible, so we will only adjust weekly product prices for every $0.10 increase in Comex. These determinations will be made every Friday at 1PM EST.”

Bisbee thinks that for many contractors and new facilities developments, fiber optic solutions have reached parity with the high-end copper-based UTP (Unshielded Twisted Pair) alternative.  This new round of major cost increases that has been added on to UTP will have many network designers reappraising their cabling infrastructure designs and calculating that fiber optic cabling may be the new "best answer.” 

Each cabling infrastructure job should be evaluated individually but one message is universal; the price of copper cabling may continue to spiral upward.

CARLINI-ISM:   If you are building a new facility, you should be looking at wireless and fiber optics as your transmission media, not copper.

Copyright 2006 – James Carlini

Check out www.carliniscomments.com JAMES CARLINI’s BLOG.

Preformed Line Products Plays Major Role In Historic American Electric Power Transmission Line

Preformed Line Products Company (PLP), a major supplier to the energy industry, played an instrumental role in the construction of the nation's largest power line project scheduled for completion in a few weeks.

PLP supplied four products used in American Electric Power's Wyoming- Jacksons Ferry transmission line located in West Virginia and Virginia. When completed in June, the $306 million, 90-mile transmission line will connect power stations in Wyoming County, W. Va. and Wythe County, Va.

The 765,000-volt line was constructed by Columbus-based AEP to address a growing customer demand in its West Virginia and Virginia service territory. To help reduce audible noise from the line, the project line uses a six-bundle conductor configuration, the first of its kind used at this voltage in North America. PLP is one of two suppliers who produce a product that makes that configuration possible by holding the line in a hexagon configuration.

AEP dedicated its transmission line today in a special ceremony near Wytheville, Va. PLP officials were present for the ceremony.

"We are extremely proud to have played such an important role in the construction of this transmission line," said Rob Ruhlman, chairman and chief executive officer of Preformed Line Products. "Transmission lines of this type are crucial in meeting the future energy needs of Americans and we salute American Electric Power for its foresight and perseverance in completing this tremendous project."

The transmission line, which crosses rugged mountain terrain, strikes the right balance between providing much-needed electric capacity and protecting the environment. The line utilizes breakthrough technology to make it more efficient while reducing audible noise levels.

PLP has a worldwide reputation for making innovative products for the support and protection of power line conductors.

Among the four products provided by PLP is its CUSHION-GRIP(TM) Spacer Damper, which holds six conductors in place between the towers along the transmission line.

These 30-inch diameter spacer dampers, which are located 200 feet apart along the line, play an important role in protecting the transmission line from wind and other elements. The spacer damper separates the six sub- conductors in the span between the towers. The damping element in the joint between the frame and the arms greatly reduces damaging conductor motions that are created by the wind. Elastomer inserts in the clamps protect the conductor from bending stresses and wear.

PLP also furnished its VARI-GRIP(TM) Dead-end and Big-Grip Dead-end products. Both are used in anchoring transmission towers to the ground. The VARI-GRIP Dead-end provides "full-strength" termination of strands used to guy the V-type structures to the ground. These are the largest and strongest dead- end products in the industry. The Big-Grip Dead-end provides a temporary anchoring to help put the guy wires in place. Three-quarters of the towers are guyed towers and quite suitable for the rugged terrain of Virginia and West Virginia.

The fourth product -- the BIRD FLIGHT(TM) Diverter - addresses an important environmental concern, protecting birds that might fly into the transmission line. With the diverter attached to the line, birds are more likely to avoid hitting them in flight. The overhead shield wires, which rest atop the towers to divert lightning strikes, are smaller than the power lines and are often not visible to birds in flight. The diverters are placed 15 feet apart on the shield wires and have proven to be very effective.

The four products were made at PLP's plants in North Carolina, Arkansas and Brazil. www.preformed.com

Snake Tray^® Introduces Mega Snake^TM, A High Capacity Cable Tray

Snake Tray® is proud to announce Mega SnakeÔ, our new high capacity cable tray for overhead applications.  Mega Snake’s unique design can convey thousands of cables for large cable runs. The Snake RailÔ, a built-in suspension system, requires no brackets and allows for random placement of the hanging rod system.  The Snake RailÔ can seamlessly interface with other size Snake Trays as well as patch panels, strain relief and fiber optic pass over devices.  Onsite fabrication of turns, tees and cross sections are no longer required with our pre-manufactured components. Mega SnakeÔ is the first large sized cable tray to be built that nests together for cost effective shipping and easy onsite handling.  www.snaketray.com

Working Up A Sweat Over Power Consumption

“Is it warm in here, or is it just me?” If servers could talk, and if that were the question posed by one of them in a typical data center, the simple answer would be “Yes.” Not only is it getting warmer wherever lots of equipment is clustered, but just about every device is part of the problem. The bottom line—literally and figuratively—is that it is getting incredibly expensive to keep that equipment cool.

Earth Day notwithstanding, forget about Global Warming: Equipment Warming may be the more severe environmental problem, when it’s your network on the line. In the past year, some eye-popping cost figures have been overlaid on the issue of equipment cooling needs.

It can cost close to $9,000 to keep one high-end server properly cooled for a year. That was the amount calculated by the analyst firm IDC, which issued a report on the subject several months ago. If that sounds bad enough, consider that IDC researched its report  before the hurricane-triggered increases in the costs of fuels. The analysts pegged the annual electric bill for U.S. data centers at $3.3 billion.

For some companies, the cost of maintaining their equipment’s environment is exceeding the cost of the equipment itself. It can be a tremendous drain on departmental budgets, robbing communications/IT departments of dollars that could be used in much more productive ways.

The problem has been compounded in the last several years because of the increased density of equipment. When you can put the networking equivalent of an entire server on a single blade, it may be a great technical accomplishment, but unfortunately power consumption doesn’t get shrunk by the same proportions. Pack a lot of this more powerful equipment into a given space, and the heat waves just roll out of it.

We hate to just whine about things, without looking for some silver lining in the cloud. It’s just our optimistic nature. So we are happy to tell you that there is progress being made. Just as technology giveth (heat in this case), technology is also finding ways to taketh away.

Solutions are showing up in the form of more power-efficient processors, and vendors are starting to offer equipment in different electricity-consuming grades so you can opt for “greener” equipment. That is on the heat-producing side. On the cooling side, such developments as water chillers for improved cooling capacity, software tools enabling better designs for equipment placement in data centers, and integrated blades with cooling technology are coming onto the market.

Just as people get lethargic when the temperature climbs, so does our computing and network equipment. This may be one more concern to add to all the other things you and your department have to worry about—but just be sure not to blow your cool.

This article, written by Kevin Tanzillo of Dux PR (kevin@duxpr.com) first appeared in the April 2006 ACUTA eNews. Republished with permission from the author and ACUTA (http://www.acuta.org).

Expert Tech Witnesses Needed To Make Complex Technology Simple

Carlini’s Comments, ePrairie’s oldest column, runs every Wednesday. Its mission is to offer the common man’s view on business and technology issues while questioning the leadership and visions of “pseudo” experts.

As more issues become disputed in municipal rights of way, SEC compliance and other technology-based arguments, the side with the best litigation support will win. In cases involving technology, the trick is to make the complex technology simple rather than making the simple technology complex, writes adjunct Northwestern professor James Carlini.

The importance of having an expert witness is becoming more of a key element for defense as well as offense in cases and disputes involving technology, regulatory issues and certain criminal cases that are intertwined with elements of technology.

Many people like watching the television show CSI because it is interesting and it sometimes presents the views of expert witnesses as they offer complex evidence to a jury. The reality in civil cases that involve technology issues is that the contested issue often never goes to trial and is settled out of court.

In civil and federal cases involving technology, the reviews and presentation of expert opinions can become complex.

The trick is to get someone who can sort out all the information, put it into a concise report and explain everything in an apples-and-oranges comparison. This is hugely important because the average judge, jurist, public utility commission member and even many lawyers do not understand the depth of technology being disputed.

Due to the nature of technology and networks, the disputed costs usually go into the millions of dollars. There also have been wrongful death cases like one I was on involving a man calling 911 and getting a recorded message saying he was dialing an invalid number. In that case, the municipality paid out a seven-figure settlement because someone didn’t do his or her job in making sure a database had all the addresses in it.

If there is a network or system failure, patent infringement or project dispute, chances are it is a multimillion-dollar lawsuit sometimes with a countersuit. When there are millions of dollars on the table, both sides are eager to sweep it up and claim it is rightfully theirs. Having an edge to win the decision is paramount.

Win, Place or Show

Those who pride themselves on being able to snow someone with their technical jargon and all their certificates are not the ones you want describing your dispute to a legal or regulatory entity. You will lose in court because the judge and jury will fail to comprehend your side of the case.

Tip: Get someone who can understand and then explain your complex system or network infrastructure in everyday terms.

One of the most high-pressure meetings I was ever in was at a racetrack with an owner, CFO and legal counsel reviewing a satellite-based initiative they were financing. They wanted to ensure they were moving in the right direction on a project under dispute that included selling off their excess satellite bandwidth with financial companies to transmit their market data.

Unfortunately, their consultant set them up with a level of service that would not be acceptable to the financial and brokerage companies.

Trying to explain the technical service levels and their associated costs would not have been successful. Instead, I said at the last minute: “Just like you, people in the financial and brokerage area like to go with winners. On the service level of satellites, there are three levels just like win, place and show. You have show.”

At that point, all the racetrack executives understood and decided the project was not feasible.

If they went with the higher service, there would be no profitability in the venture. Giving a concise summary that everyone around the table could understand made it possible for them to make a tough decision that immediately cut their expenditures on a project that would not have gone anywhere. The strategic partnership ended at that moment.

The same principles apply to developing testimonies for legal disputes. You must have someone who can look at the situation, pick out the relevant information and then craft it into a concise and convincing presentation to strengthen the legal argument.

In computer forensics or technology forensics, that includes communication networks. Services, information and data needed for evidence has to be processed correctly.

There are five steps in the process of forensics as applied to technology:

1.    Collection
2.    Preservation
3.    Analysis
4.    Presentation
5.    Archiving

In the collection process, something as innocuous as shutting down a computer could actually damage the evidence you want to preserve. According to forensics author Christopher L.T. Brown: “Almost 50 files are changed in some way on each boot of the Windows XP operating system and five or more new files are created.”

It is critical to understand these nuances when going about collecting and preserving information. If your company has gotten into a lawsuit or has received an audit from the SEC, you should get someone who understands the collection and preservation process from a litigation standpoint. You shouldn’t get your systems administrator.

Another reason to get someone from outside your organization is that people on the inside might part of the criminal activity. In the case of a false bomb threat at a school, the “inside people” didn’t understand the capabilities of the payphone technology. They were trying to hang a student with a felony he did not commit.

This incident happened three weeks before Columbine. The school administrators wanted to make an example out of this student who turned out to do nothing wrong. The student just reported suspicious activity to the principal as he should have. The school administrators came to a wrong conclusion about a payphone’s ability to accept incoming calls.

While a sticker on the phone said it could not, in fact it could accept incoming calls. Before investigating the facts, they decided this was just a senior prank to get people out of the building early. They wanted to prosecute this senior for fabricating the story. The bottom line is he stuck to his story and even took a polygraph test. We also proved that the payphone could accept incoming calls. The charges were dismissed.

Tip: Do not listen to all the “experts” at your company or your vendor. Get a second opinion that’s objective. Get it fast.

Lawyers Are Not Technologists

Lawyers need help in gathering, reviewing and analyzing information as well as presenting complex arguments dealing with technology. The good ones understand that and will seek out expert witnesses who can help in several ways. There are different areas through which lawyers become more effective by using an expert witness:

1.    Developing a list of what is needed for defending or prosecuting a case
2.    Researching relevant information and building a report
3.    Pointing out critical information and how it relates to the case
4.    Developing questions to ask the opposition
5.    Prioritizing the data and electronic “artifacts” for inclusion as evidence
6.    Developing the presentation of that evidence
7.    Developing and delivering testimony
8.    Reviewing and analyzing the opposition’s testimony
9.    Providing testimony and exhibits that support the legal arguments

Carlinism: The use of expert witnesses in technology cases can only enhance the strength of the argument. In cases involving technology, the trick is to make the complex technology simple rather than making the simple technology complex.

Check out the blog of James Carlini at http://www.carliniscomments.com.

James Carlini is an adjunct professor at Northwestern University. He is also president of Carlini & Associates. Carlini can be reached at james.carlini@sbcglobal.net or 773-370-1888.
Click here for Carlini’s full biography.

DYMO Industrial Launches New RhinoPRO Colored Vinyl Labels

Proper labeling and identification has never been so important.  From commercial applications to our homes, people today rely more heavily on electronic portable label printers than ever before. With advances in factory and home automation, high density data and multi-gigabit applications, color coding has become an increasingly important way to differentiate advanced services. For this reason, DYMO Industrial, a worldwide leader in portable label printing has introduced new colored vinyl labels as an extension of its already wide array of RhinoPRO Industrial labels.

Color coding gives users a better visual recognition of critical, even life-line services. These labels are ideal for fire and life safety applications, broadcast facilities, CATV headends, mission critical data centers, Telco central offices as well as outside plant applications and of course traditional applications like patch panels and wire and cable marking.  Vibrant colors – Red, Orange, Yellow, Green and White – make them clearly recognizable and have the added benefit of being usable in outdoor environments due to their resistance to direct UV light. And, like all RhinoPRO labels, the printing on the RhinoPRO Vinyl labels won’t ever smudge or fade.

“Today’s advanced business applications often require color coding to differentiate services” said Doug Waldal, Global Director of the DYMO Industrial Business Unit.  “With the new RhinoPRO colored vinyl labels, we’ve given users that and much more.  They now have the ability to accurately and confidently label their work with the assurance that the labels will stick and last. We’ve teamed the most economical, most user-friendly and feature rich printers – the RhinoPRO 5000 and the RhinoPRO 3000 – with the highest performing colored vinyl labels on the market for a solution that is unmatched.”

The new RhinoPRO Colored Vinyl Labels are the latest in a complete line of professional labels designed for today’s installation professionals. The vinyl label labels now join the RhinoPRO labeling family of Flexible Nylon, Permanent Polyester, Metallized Permanent Polyester as well as Heat Shrink Tubing – a unique offering in printers at this price range. RhinoPRO Colored Vinyl Labels are available now in three sizes: 3/8”, 1/2", & 3/4” as well as five colors Red, Orange, Yellow, Green and White.  They work in both the RhinoPRO 5000 and the RhinoPRO 3000.

Vinyl labels retail from $15.99 - $17.99, and the RhinoPRO 3000 and RhinoPRO 5000 retail for $99.99 and $149.99 respectively.  All are available now through your local distributor.  For more information please visit www.rhinolabeling.com.

TFM Forum - An Event Developed To Streamline The Purchase Of Volume Facility Management Solutions:

Dear Facility Executive,

I invite you to participate as an attendee at the inaugural TFM Forum at the exquisite Château Élan in Atlanta, Georgia on October 24-26, 2006. This event will deliver an intimate gathering of facility executives for candid discussion, informative workshops, think tanks and informal networking with leading industry suppliers.

Endorsed by TFM magazine this strategic buying event was designed for facility executives like you faced with the challenge of high volume purchasing of products and services for your organization. This complimentary event, which includes deluxe accommodations, meals, and ground transportation in Atlanta, will provide just the right atmosphere of sophistication and remote serenity to foster a conducive atmosphere for the discussion of any upcoming new construction or renovation projects that you may be working on.

Fill out a delegate application form today at: http://www.tfmforum.com/facilityExecutiveApplication.htm

The TFM magazine editors have designed a program that will provide you with strategic and practical information that will help you select the right solutions for your organization.  Below are some of the high level keynotes, seminars, and think tanks that will be presented at the inaugural event:

Opening Keynote:

* Personal Best: Achieving FM Excellence

Closing Keynote:

* Shaping The Future Of Facility Management: An Interactive Working Session

Seminars/Workshops/Think Tanks:

* Budgeting for Effective Facilities

* High Performance, High Technology Workplaces=High Performance Facilities

* Becoming Best In Class: Gain Greater Customer Connectivity by Differentiating Service 

   Delivery Systems

* Ergonomics: How It Influences Employee Retention and Productivity Levels

* Mission Critical Facilities: Designing Them And Protecting Them

* Technology and the Business of Facility Management

* Making A Business Case for Facilities Management: Talking to the C-Suites

* Facility Security

* HVAC & IAQ: Legal and Financial Issues

* Why Be Sustainable? Evaluating the Case for High Performance Buildings

If you're the decision maker who is responsible for purchasing products and services for your organization, you cannot afford to miss The TFM Forum.

Fill out a delegate application form today at: http://www.tfmforum.com/facilityExecutiveApplication.htm

While you're at The TFM Forum, you'll enjoy complimentary deluxe accommodations at the Château Élan Winery and Resort in Atlanta, GA, gourmet meals, access to the spa, and an incredible educational experience that will save you time and potentially thousands of dollars. Plus, you'll have the opportunity to network with other Facility Executives in charge of their company's new construction and/or renovation projects.

I look forward to seeing you in October

Sincerely,

Susan Coene

President

TFM Forum

www.TFMForum.com

P.S.   Space is limited for this invitation only event.  Please fill out your application form today and find out if you qualify for the inaugural TFM Forum at the exquisite Château Élan in Atlanta, Georgia.

Computer Estimating by Mike Holt May 2006

In today’s construction industry, the use of computers for estimating is commonplace. So common in fact, anyone planning a career as an electrical estimator better plan on developing an expertise in using computers - especially estimating software. As the cheapest computers today are very fast and powerful, the computer itself is no longer a focus point: the primary focus is and will forever be the software.

Incredible advances in estimating software have improved the estimating process greatly. These programs allow estimators to increase the number of bids, hone their accuracy, create consistency, improve project management, improve the purchase and control of materials, and better the company’s bottom line. Some programs are now capable of actually doing the counting and estimating for you. There are even programs that will assist an estimator with design criteria and learning the NEC.

Today’s estimators must possess total control of the software. For this, they will need to develop strong visualization skills. Visualization skills allow the estimator to see their desired output from the software. This will allow them to input the information correctly to achieve the desired, successful output.

Even with all this super-technology, one element of estimating remains and is still required: the estimator and his or her knowledge of electrical installations. This can and never will be replaced by a machine and software. It is the merging, or interface, of the two that today’s estimator must master.

8.01 Myths and Truths

Myth: Computerized estimates are more accurate than those done the old, by hand method.

Truth: Any estimate, done by hand or with the use of a computer, is only as good as the estimator who makes and reviews it.

Computer assisted estimates are not necessarily more complete or more accurate than a “by hand” estimate. Both types of estimates are deeply affected by a simple formula: Quality in = Quality out.

It doesn’t matter how good the software is, or how large the database. If the material items in the database are not priced; or if the labor items are incorrectly labored (or worse – they have no labor values at all); or if you simply fail to make correct entries; or use the wrong database – your estimates can carry the potential to be highly flawed. A highly flawed estimate is either too low or too high. Either way the company loses. It is the estimator’s primary job to know if the estimate is right.

Myth: Computerized estimates take less time than those done the old, by hand way.

Truth: This is a slight myth. Most computer assisted estimates can be completed in less time, but they can often take longer. Again, it depends on the estimator. What his ‘take-off and entry style’ is or what the company’s take-off policies are. There are many variables when using computers. These variables give you the choice of how fast or slow you want to be and when.

A standard estimate has 2 primary stages – take-off and extension.

During the take-off stage, using software can often be a slower process than the older, simpler method of counting symbols and writing the totals down on a paper spreadsheet. The interface with software requires additional time and effort to find or build the right items or assemblies in the database. The proper breakout location must be assigned and set prior to entry. A “count entry” function is required. This requires typing in and/or clicking a button for the correct value entry. This is a lot of work compared to hand writing a symbol or note and then placing a figure underneath it.

Where the speed differential occurs is primarily after the take-off stage is done and all the entry is complete. This is the time of extension.

It is in this single function that the computer absolutely, without mercy defeats the old “by hand” method. The old method requires a very detailed write-up and expansion of the counted items. A light fixture, for example, may have 7-10 individual components which need to be written down, along with their associated material prices and labor units. Then these values need to be calculated against the quantities and sub-totals need to be entered for each. After all this, final totals need to be summed up. This takes a great deal of time, effort, accuracy and hand strength. After all this, it is likely that someone else will need to double-check the extensions for accuracy. Imagine the time required to complete this process on a bid that has 3 or more Bid Form items. Worse, imagine what has to be done if something changes or you find a mistake - after you create these final extensions.

With computer estimating software, the extension phase becomes a simple selection of take-off entries and the desired report format. Then a simple push of a button starts the calculations. The computer does the rest with more accuracy and speed than any human or even a large group of humans ever could.

8.02 Advantages and Benefits

The Estimator is still in control

A computer and estimating software are simply estimating tools. They are only as efficient as the estimator – the one responsible for telling the computer what to do. Even with the latest technology of CAD Estimating programs which interface digital drawings and the computer estimating database, allowing the computer to count the electrical designs - the estimator still plays the most vital role by controlling what is counted, entered, calculated and extended.

Today’s engineers have the technology to design electrical installations in 3D using high-powered software and computers. Imagine these 3D designs being integrated with an estimating software database. Upon completion of the design, a simple click of a button can create a complete materials and labor report. But again, these reports can only be as detailed as the estimator can imagine them to be and are highly subject to how in-control of the software the estimator is.

Saves you time so you can do more!

A computer does thousands of mathematical computations in a fraction of a second, never makes an error, never gets tired or careless, and never forgets the information that is stored. Computer estimating will reduce your estimating time and cost because you no longer need to price, labor, extend, or total material or labor by hand.

This translates into additional time for other important functions. Such as: more time to review the estimate; time to bid more jobs; time to better organize and manage the company; or to spend more time with the family.

Better Control of Material Cost

Once the take-off is complete and the take-off quantities have been entered into the computer, a report of all the materials required for the job can be printed and broken down by job phase. This list can be submitted to multiple suppliers in order to get competitive prices and fixed delivery dates. The estimate can also be shared by a contractor’s purchasing and accounting departments. Cost tracking and inventory control become much simpler when all the information is generated and controlled by a computer. In addition, you can reduce the storage requirements for material, thereby reducing waste and theft.

Labor Savings

A computer generated estimate provides great flexibility to extend the project many different ways. By system, by floor, by building, site work only, by phase, etc. Detailed information like this can be shared with the field, giving electricians on the job labor budgets and goals. This helps them ensure the job gets completed on time. It can also help them order materials, allowing for better control of their arrival to the jobsite, reducing inventory and handling time.

Reduces Overhead

Although the software can be expensive and training costs add yet another expense, a contractor’s overhead will still be decreased. Reduced estimating costs are derived from the ability of one estimator being able to bid more jobs faster. Materials inventory control is improved with less storage space cost and reduced financing costs. You’ll also improve billing and expedite collections. This will increase cash flow.

When the estimating department is fully integrated with all of other departments, the increased efficiency will spread itself throughout the company and reduce overhead substantially.

Increase Business Volume

The savings in estimating time will permit you to estimate more jobs to expand your business volume. Using computer generated estimates can also improve your marketing as you can present a more detailed and professional looking package to your clients. You should also be able to service your clients better by having the ability to accommodate any pricing structures they require. The more details you can provide your client, the more confidence they will have in your company’s knowledge of their projects. This too will result in more requests for bids, which will ultimately result in more contracts won.

Added Confidence and Security

A computer estimate provides you with increased confidence and security that your bid price is correct. It will also provide you with more consistent and accurate historical data for jobs of the same types. This will improve your competitiveness and increase your profit margins.

8.03 Software Selection

Purchase Considerations

Simple to Use. The software should be logical, intuitive, simple to use, and easy to understand. The commands must be precise and there should not be any danger of losing data. There should be an on-screen audit trail to review and modify the take-off at any time.

Portability. A software package should be portable so it can be used at the office, at home, or even in your car with a laptop or possibly a palmtop computer.

Flexibility. The software should provide the capability of factoring labor or material cost for every line of the take-off to reflect diverse installation conditions. You should be able to view or change anything in the estimate at any point.

Reports. A wide variety of reports should be available to furnish information to the client, as well as to provide information for project management decisions.

Don’t expect computer estimating software to fit all of your needs. There will always be something your software can’t do that you wish it could. However, a quality estimating system should not require you to make too many major adjustments in your estimating style. In fact, estimating software should considerably improve your estimating techniques by giving you greater flexibility to be creative.

How Much Should It Cost?

The cost of computerizing a business depends on whether or not you already have a computer. However, do not make the mistake of trying to use an old, outdated computer to run new, super-charged software. There will be great frustrations and much disappointment. Also, you will not be getting the most from your software investment.

There are always lower priced systems available, but strong consideration of the major players should be given. A single user license for a quality estimating software system costs between $2,500 and $4,000. Multi-user or Network versions will cost more according to how many users will need to be licensed.

Make your decision based on the value you will receive for your investment. Be sure you can count on long-range service from the company and that they always give you close personal attention.

One last budget issue: Don’t forget to account for annual tech support fees. These fees and the services can cost as much as a single user license but they will pay for themselves easily over the course of a year. Especially when a tech helps you restore a job file an hour before the bid is due.

Software is not a 1-time expense. Just like your computers, it carries a continuous cost of annual support fees, maintenance, repair and upgrades.

Can You Afford It?

In today’s world, it’s highly unlikely that you can be competitive if you estimate without a computer. The question is not whether you can afford to purchase a computer and estimating software but whether, can you afford not to use these tools when estimating jobs?

To determine the dollars required in sales to cover the purchase of computer estimating software, use the following formula:

Sales needed to cover cost of estimating software = Cost of Estimating System per Year/Gross Profit Percent (Overhead + Profit)

Example: How much must sales increase per year to cover the cost of an estimating system, based on the following factors: Estimating system to cost $6,000 includes software, computer, and training and your accountant indicates that your gross profit margin is 30 percent.

Sales Increase Required per Year = $1,500/0.30 = $5,000

Sales Increase Required per Month = $5,000/12 = $417

To pay for the software you only need $20,000 in additional sales over the life of the software!

Who Sells Estimating Software?

Because of the technical nature of electrical estimating, estimating software is not available in computer stores. Only a person who has been trained in electrical contracting can adequately explain how computerized estimating works, and the many ways it will benefit you.

Find out as much as you can about the software vendor. How long have they been in the business of selling software? How many customers do they have? What other software products do they sell? What is their background in estimating and electrical contracting? Don’t get too excited, take your time to investigate the different vendors and make a selection based on facts, not opinions. If possible, see if you can use the software on a trial basis. Naturally this will cost you a few hundred dollars, insist on money back guarantee.

Here is a list of the major estimating software companies:

Accubid: www.Accubid.com Denver, CO 1-800-222-8243

McCormick: www.McCormicksys.com Chandler, AZ 1- 800 444 4890

Con-Est: www.conest.com Manchester, NH 1-800-662-7687

Estimation: www.estimation.com Linthicum Heights, MD 1-800-275-6475

Timberline: www.sagetimberlineoffice.com Beaverton, OR 1-800-628-6583

Vision-InfoSoft: www.visioninfosoft.com Carlsbad, CA 1-800-258-7752

In the event that any of the above noted information becomes outdated, you can always go to www.MikeHolt.com and click on our “Estimating Software” link. Here you will find links to all the major software companies updated regularly.

8.04 Training and Support

Don’t expect miracles and be prepared to devote your time.  Regardless of how well estimating software is designed, don’t expect optimum results without complete training. Professional training is expensive and requires time away from the office. Be prepared to devote serious time to learning how to use it. This will be extremely difficult to do at the same time you are trying to estimate multiple projects. You should try to devote extra hours of training after work or on the weekend. The more time you put into using the program, the faster you will master it.

Even the most carefully designed software requires training, service, support, and technical assistance. These requirements are even more important when the software is highly specialized, and requires special skills, experience, and background in the field for which the software was designed.

Specialized software systems should be purchased directly from the software developer, who is equipped to explain the product, and provide the training and support needed if you run into difficulty.

Warning: If you attempt to use your software without proper training, you may never learn all of the valuable features that are designed within the program.

8.05 Pricing Services

In order to effectively use an estimating software program, you will also need to subscribe to a Materials Pricing Program such as Electrical Resources, Inc. EPS Plus, Trade Service Corp.’s Traser or Vision InfoSoft’s Epic pricing programs. By using UPC and DCI commodity codes, these programs interface with most major estimating software programs and price all the individual material items in the database. Many companies have contracted with pricing services to save office time, and to gain assurance they have current material prices.

If you do decide to use a pricing service, be sure you select one whose prices are broken down by geographical area, so that they will more accurately reflect those where your job is located. Also, just as you checked the background of companies offering estimating software, you should inquire as to the background of companies offering pricing services. Where do they get their material prices? What is their relationship to the electrical industry?

If you decide you don’t want to use a pricing service, you will most likely need to create material reports for your vendors to price on every estimate you do. This may add to your work load and will make you dependent on your vendors for service.

8.06 Frequently Asked Questions

Do I need to be a highly trained computer operator?

No, but it certainly helps. Most software vendors assume that you have no computer experience and designed their software to be easy to learn and use. All you need to do is follow the commands on the screen to get the results you want. In fact, after a brief training period, a clerical employee can use the take-off and complete the estimate for you. Leaving you more free time to start another bid, or devote yourself to other responsibilities. However, some programs are very advanced and can get very involved. Those who benefit the most from these features are those who have a great understanding of operating a computer.

Can I still do Manual take-off?

Yes. With most any estimating software, you have two methods of performing the take-off; the manual method or the direct entry method.

Manual Take-Off - This method requires two steps. First, you complete the take-off, writing all count and take-off information on a paper spreadsheet. Then you enter that information into the estimating software’s database. This method is a bit slower and in some ways defeats one of the main features of using software.

Direct Take-Off – This method involves entering the count and take-off information directly into the computer as you go. This method will slow you down at first. But when mastered, this step saving method permits the estimate to be completed much quicker and with more accuracy as it is easier to remember what something is when you count it than it is 2 days later.

How much time can I save?

It depends on the software, the estimator, and the complexity of the job. As the estimator becomes more familiar with the system and database, less time is required. The more complicated the job, the more time saved. As a general rule, once proficient - you should be able to estimate and extend in much less time than it would take you to do the job manually.

Will my bid accuracy be improved?

Yes, no, maybe – it all depends on you. A computer doesn’t make mistakes when it’s tired or overworked. It doesn’t forget the data it has stored when distractions occur. It doesn’t omit steps in calculation and it doesn’t make errors in overlooking taxes, overhead, or profit.

The accuracy of your bid is only as accurate as your input. This rule also applies to the input and creation of your database, not just what you estimate. It also plays a major role during the extension phase of your estimates. If you do not extend your estimate accurately, you will not have an accurate estimate.

Always remember: the computer will only do what you tell it to do.

Will My Estimates be as Complete?

Yes, no, maybe. Again, it all depends on you, the database and your input. If you succeed in accurate control and entry, your estimates should be more complete than any done by hand. They will also carry more information to increase your efficiency, impress your customers, as well as improve profit margins.

Must I Change My Methods of Estimating?

Yes, no, maybe. The estimating software should be flexible and adapt to your estimating style, but don’t expect the software to fit all of your needs perfectly. You may also find yourself exploring deeper waters because the computer is now allowing you to be more creative. Computerized estimating can produce amazing results and highly useful estimates. But you can also get in trouble with controlling what you enter, maintaining tight deadlines and confusing yourself. As you explore the deeper waters, make sure you always maintain the primary goal that is Bid Day and exactly what you need to achieve for a successful bid.

Can I Realistically Expect to Increase Profits?

Yes, as long as you stay focused on learning as much as you can about the software, interpreting its output, maintaining the quality of your input, controlling your database, tracking your progress and taking note of your failures. Reducing estimating time means you will be bidding more jobs. This means winning more contracts. Knowing how to use the software will allow you to better control costs and improve project management. All of this should translate into bigger profits.

How big must I be to achieve any benefit?

Size doesn’t matter. Even the smallest electrical contractor can benefit from using a computer and estimating software to increase business efficiency. Small companies, where the owner or manager typically does 100% of the estimating, can use computerized estimating to free more time for administration, selling, and project management.

How long will it take to learn how to use a computer estimating software?

Don’t rush it. Give yourself 6 months to a year to become somewhat proficient. 2 years to get really good. Much of it depends on your experience with computers, how good an estimator you are, and the amount of time you invest learning how to run the software. Don’t expect miracles, don’t get frustrated and quit. Keep pushing your limits. Those with lots of experience will be estimating in a matter of days or even hours, without attending a single training class! Those with less experience may struggle and require a few months to get comfortable with the process. For others, a training class may be necessary. Most software firms offer training courses and user seminars specifically for their products. Although sometimes expensive, they can provide priceless training and tips on how to use the program to its fullest potential.

Fluke Networks Provides Distributed Network Analysis And Monitoring Capability For InteropNet

InteropNet uses Fluke Networks' OptiView solutions to ensure uptime and manage change during limited-time event

Fluke Networks is the official Distributed Analysis and Troubleshooting sponsor that will manage key portions of InteropNet, the event network that provides reliable, high-speed network services to all Interop Las Vegas 2006 exhibitors, conferences and meeting rooms using the latest technologies. The Fluke Networks Distributed Network Analysis and Monitoring Solution used in the InteropNet enables staff to see what is happening on remote parts of the network, and troubleshoot as if they were there. By identifying the root cause of a problem and fixing it from the Network Operations Center (NOC), Mean Time to Repair (MTTR) can be reduced by as much as 90%.  For a limited-duration event such as Interop, the immediate problem resolution delivered by this solution is essential. 

"The InteropNet addresses networking challenges faced by all businesses -- changing technology , troubleshooting, balancing traffic --  multiplied by the pressure of a limited-duration event," said Lenny Heymann, Interop General Manager.  "With over 400 exhibitors installing and removing practically anything at any time, our ability to rapidly see and mange what's changing on the network is critical."

The InteropNet is the world's largest mobile civilian network.  Using components from more than 25 suppliers, the InteropNet is constructed over a two-week period in a San Francisco -area warehouse, partially broken down and then trucked to the show hall at the Mandalay Bay Convention Center in Las Vegas.  There it is installed in four days, after which it serves as the essential communications link for over 50 meeting rooms, 400 exhibitor booths and numerous off-site locations.  Registration for over 18,000 conference attendees is also done over the InteropNet.

The Distributed Network Analysis and Monitoring Solution is built around Fluke Networks' OptiViewtm Server, which collects and correlates detailed performance information gathered from multiple OptiView Workgroup Analyzers and OptiView WAN Analyzers placed at remote locations through Interop.  Using a system such as that displayed in the InteropNet allows network managers to take a proactive approach to managing the distributed enterprise, providing higher levels of service to users and dramatically reducing MTTR, all while lowering costs.  www.flukenetworks.com

NAED Announces New Officers For 2006-2007

The National Association of Electrical Distributors (NAED) announces its new Board of Directors for 2006 - 2007. Led by the NAED chair, the Board of Directors is a dedicated group of industry leaders who volunteer their time and efforts to improve the association and the electrical distribution channel.

The 2006 - 2007 NAED Chair of the Board is John Duda, chairman and CEO of Butler Supply, Inc., in St. Louis, Mo. Duda has dedicated more than 38 years to electrical distribution, serving in a variety of leadership and volunteer positions for NAED. In addition to being on the NAED Board of Directors, he has served as NAED Foundation Chairman, Central Region Vice President and Missouri River Club President, as well as participating in the NAED Foundation’s Channel Advantage Partnership endowment and Finance Committee. Through his message, “NAED: Focus on the Future,” Duda will encourage the industry to examine trends and implement the industry best practices that NAED Task Forces have developed in the last two years. He will become NAED chairman at the conclusion of the 2006 Annual Meeting held April 22-26 in Orlando, Fla.

“I'm very honored to serve as NAED chairman this year. I believe that a strong, national trade association that is attuned to the needs and wants of its members is an incredibly valuable resource. We have a great group of people representing the electrical industry on the NAED Board," Duda said. "With the staff's help, NAED has come up with some great programs and products in the past couple of years, and now it's up to the board to build participation.”

Tammy Miller, CEO of Border States Electric Supply in Fargo, N.D., will be Chair-Elect. She will be working closely with Duda to assess and meet the needs of the industry. Miller became CEO of Border States, the nation’s 14th-largest electrical distributor, in January 2006 after serving as company president during 2005. Previously she was executive vice president, CFO and general manager for the company’s southwest region. Active in NAED, she has been a member of the association’s Board of Directors for the past seven years and most recently has been Western Region Vice President. She has chaired the NAED Finance Committee and Special Pricing Authorization (SPA) Distributor Task Force. She also serves on the Channel Advantage Partnership Council. Miller will become NAED chair at the conclusion of the 2007 Annual Meeting, held May 5 – 9 in Washington, D.C.

The 2006 - 2007 NAED Board of Directors are:

•           John Duda, NAED Chairman, Butler Supply, Inc., St. Louis, Mo.

•           Tammy Miller, NAED Chair-Elect, Border States Electric Supply, Fargo, N.D.

•           Bill Elliott, NAED Past Chair, Elliott Electric Supply, Nacogdoches, Texas

•           Sandra Rosecrans, NAED Eastern Region Vice President, City Electric Co., Inc., Syracuse, N.Y.

•           Les Williamson, NAED Western Region Vice President, Eoff Electric Co., Portland, Ore.   

•           George Adams, NAED South Central Region Vice President, Electric Supply of Tampa, Inc., Tampa, Fla.

•           Daniel Gray, NAED Eastern Region Vice President-Elect, Independent Electric Supply, Somerville, Mass.

•           Thomas Isenberg, NAED Western Region Vice President-Elect, Western Extralite Co., Kansas City, Mo.

•           Glenn Goedecke, NAED South Central Region Vice President-Elect, Mayer Electric Supply Co., Birmingham, Ala.     

•           D. Brent Spear, NAED Member at Large, Electrical Distributors, Inc., Charlotte, N.C.

•           Cara Gordon Potter, NAED Member at Large, Gordon Electric Supply Inc., Kankakee, Ill.

•           Robert Reynolds, Jr., NAED Member at Large, Graybar Electric Company, Inc., St. Louis, Mo.

•           Joe Huffman, NAED Member at Large, Consolidated Electrical Distributors, Inc., Westlake Village, Calif.

•           Lawrence Stern, NAED Finance Committee Chair, Standard Electric Supply Co., Milwaukee, Wis.

•           Jack Mumford, NAED Foundation Chair, Western Region Sonepar USA, Portland, Ore.

•           Richard Waterman, NAED Foundation Chair-Elect, Rexel, Inc., Dallas, Texas

•           Robert Smith, NAED Manufacturer Representative, Pass & Seymour/Legrand, Syracuse, N.Y.

•           Todd Kumm, IDEA Vice Chair, Dakota Supply Group, Fargo, N.D.

•           Amy Treadway, Your Emerging Talent (YET) Chair, Treadway Electric Company, Inc., Little Rock, Ark.

As the governing body of NAED, the Board of Directors is accountable for the effective performance and direction of the association; as well as communicating to the membership about NAED’s activities and policies. Within the framework of the association’s by-laws and policies, the Board of Directors determines measurements for success, establishes policy imperatives, defines the organization’s vision for the future, fulfills fiduciary obligations and serves as champions of the association. NAED officers attend two NAED Board meetings a year and are encouraged to attend all NAED Regional and Annual Meetings.

NAED is the trade association for the $70+ billion electrical distribution industry. Through networking, education, research, and benchmarking, NAED helps electrical distributors increase profitability and improve the channel. NAED’s membership represents approximately 4,100 locations internationally. www.na